Florida Election Results 2026: What Tuesday Means for South Florida Democrats
Republicans held every statewide office, but by the thinnest margins in years. Here is what the 2026 Florida results mean for Democrats from the Keys to Jupiter.
The Florida election results 2026 tell two stories at once. Republicans kept the governor's office, the Cabinet and a U.S. Senate seat. They also watched a 1.5 million voter registration advantage shrink to statewide wins of roughly one to three points. For South Florida Democrats, that gap is the whole ballgame.
The statewide races
Congressman Byron Donalds beat former Congressman David Jolly for governor by a little over a point, roughly 50.0 percent to 48.7 percent on unofficial returns. Donalds will be the first Black Republican elected governor anywhere in the country. Jolly, a former Republican, came closer than any Democratic nominee for governor since 2018.
Down ballot, the pattern held. Attorney General James Uthmeier, CFO Blaise Ingoglia and Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson all won, each by about one to two points. In the special election for the U.S. Senate seat Marco Rubio vacated, Ashley Moody beat state Rep. Angie Nixon about 50.9 to 48.0. Moody only won the final two years of that term. She is on the ballot again in 2028.
| Race | Unofficial result |
|---|---|
| Governor | Donalds (R) about 50.0, Jolly (D) about 48.7 |
| U.S. Senate (special) | Moody (R) 50.9, Nixon (D) 48.0 |
| Attorney General | Uthmeier (R) about 51, Rodriguez (D) about 49 |
| Amendment 3 (property tax) | Passed with about 62 percent |
The registration math Republicans do not want to talk about
When books closed on October 5, Florida had about 5.69 million active Republican voters and about 4.15 million Democrats. That is a Republican edge of roughly 11 points on paper. Republicans won the top of the ticket by a fraction of that. Independents and a lot of registered Republicans voted for Democrats, and Democratic turnout surged.
Governor DeSantis himself credited Amendment 3, the homestead property tax cut, for turning out enough Republican voters to hold the Cabinet. Take that at face value and the lesson is clear: without a ballot measure propping up their turnout, Florida Republicans were in serious trouble.
Where Democrats actually won
The biggest gains came in Tallahassee. Democrats flipped 16 Florida House seats, lost one, and broke the Republican supermajority. A Brevard County seat that went Republican by double digits in 2024 is now in a recount with the Democrat ahead. In the state Senate, John Lowndes unseated Sen. Jason Brodeur in SD-10.
In South Florida, the congressional map Republicans redrew this spring to wipe out Democratic seats did not deliver. Jared Moskowitz held FL-25, Pia Dandiya won the brand new FL-22, and Oliver Gilbert III won FL-24. Maria Elvira Salazar and Mario Diaz-Balart are clinging to leads of under one point.
What South Florida Democrats do next
Close losses are not consolation prizes. They are a target list. Every Republican who survived Tuesday by a point is on the ballot again in two years, and so is every legislator who walked back to Tallahassee without facing a Democrat at all.
- See how close we are on the progress tracker.
- Browse every 2027 and 2028 race on the interactive Florida race map.
- Think about running. Several municipal filing windows open this month. Here is how to start.
Florida did not flip this year. It got close enough that the people who run it noticed.
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